It seems intuitive to me that 1627 > 2025 in the sense that whoever has the most pledged delegates ought to get the nomination separate from the superdelegates.
Purely speaking (or thinking rather), I don't see how one could disagree with the very simple and basic argument put forth by that website.
Now, of course I say that, unashamedly so, because the current calculated delegate projections (at least according to the Obama team themselves) at the end of the primary process are:
Obama: 1,647 Clinton: 1,580
- Obama is the Underdog, Period
Anyway, I love how the Hillary campaign is trying to paint themselves as the underdog and attach the "establishment" label onto Obama. It just doesn't help me to trust them. It really seems to be about winning for them. They are willing to deliberately mislead and misrepresent things. It's very scary in my opinion. The reality is, unfortunately, that even with all of Obama's "momentum", this nomination race is still Hillary's to lose. I wish it weren't true, but it simply is a fact.
I believe that a major reason that Hillary won the BIG states on Feb. 5th is not because there was this active rejection of Obama in California, New Jersey and Massachusetts, but rather because Hillary has the name recognition, longstanding relationships and organization/infrastructure already in place in those states. If you already like Clinton and you know nothing about Obama then why shouldn't you vote for Hillary?
Now, I'm not saying that every Clinton voter would have changed their minds "had they just known", but you can't deny that there simply wasn't enough time to get the message of the Obama
campaign out to everyone who could have been a potential Obama supporter. (Notice I say "potential". I fully appreciate that there are smart, educated Democratic and independent voters who have taken a close look at both candidates and still choose to vote for Hillary) There were only 10 days for Obama to introduce himself to a gigantic group of voters that might have only started paying attention seriously very recently or even just a day before their respective primaries.
But make no mistake, if both the Clinton campaign and the Obama campaign were to cease from all activity right now, Hillary would probably win the Democratic nomination.
The best example of this in my opinion is the Asian and Latino vote in California. Asians and Latinos voted 3-to-1 and 2-to-1 in favor of Clinton. But thanks to Jeff Chang's article and also this analysis (look at bullet point # 9), I have come to terms with those results because I personally believe that many Latino and Asian voters simply didn't have an opportunity to fairly compare both Obama and Clinton.
So on Saturday, December 22, 2007, I FINALLY got a chance to do some hardcore campaigning for my current 4th love.
Along with a handful of Atlanta as well as local volunteers we canvassed a neighborhood in Sumpter, SC. At first, I was a bit nervous about going door to door, but it really wasn't that bad. Because you're not going around with the sole aim of winning people over by arguing or by intimately discussing Obama's policies, but rather the job of a canvasser is to find out what support might already exist for Senator Obama.
Anyway, one thing that I was definitely not nervous about was the moment right before our team broke up into our respective neighborhoods.
As some of you may know, since June of this year, the Obama Campaign has had a signature rallying chant, a call-and-response cry that originated in the civil rights movement but has been brought back to life ubiquitously. Click here to see just one example of its infectiousness and energy.
Well ever since I heard the story myself a few months. I was DYING to lead or participate in one genuine instance of the chant and this was finally it! An unspectacular group of about 20 canvassers huddled together in a small town in South Carolina and it was my job at least for that moment to get them "Fired Up!" and "Ready to Go!".
And I actually did. All this pent-up energy. All the hours spent scouring and reading every single relevant article on www.realclearpolitics.com. All the hope I felt for what Obama represented exploded quietly as I found myself dancing just a bit, hands outstretched downward just in front of me, shoulders shrugging in some form of rhythm. As I yelled and they responded. And the kinship and partnership and energy I felt from this group of strangers was so real. It was over in a few seconds, but it was a great moment for me personally.
Anyway, Jamell, the Obama staff worker who led our team was encouraged by my energy and made me do it again later in the afternoon when we canvassed with Jesse Jackson, Jr. Except this time, there was a reporter from the Chicago Tribune and after she interviewed Congressman Jackson she went up to me and asked me: "So how did you become known as the "chant" guy?" So there is my 2 seconds of fame as the "Obama Chant Leader" for a day. (Thanks to another kindred spirit for the link)
Hillary Clinton has already begun to spin the potential of an Obama Iowa victory as not a big deal. This is absolutely false. She wants Edwards or herself to win Iowa BADLY. But I fear the rigors of this campaign are beginning to wear her down because after having already stolen the "Turn The Page" line from Obama, here she is stealing another poll-tested, focus-group-approved line...
Certainly just a little old mistake, but I don't think it's insignificant either.
On a much lighter note. Here is a glimpse into another journey of mine.
Ages 0-18 - Alcohol is bad. Consuming alcohol in any form shows that you are not a Christian. Got drunk once. And it was indeed bad. Didn't understand all the fuss over how great alcohol is. Oh well, I guess I'll learn in college.
Age 18 - Woohoo! College! Time to finally learn why alcohol is so fantastic.
Age 18.5 - Alcohol is not explicitly sin but it's probably a bad idea. And also, conveniently we are in the United States which has this peculiarly high legal drinking age so we can say that alcohol is bad in the meantime until age 21.
Age 18.5-21ish - The "legal age technicality" and the "protect the weaker brother" arguments are good enough reason for me not to dabble in alcohol.
Age 21ish - Friends of mine seem to be enjoying alcohol responsibly. Time to finally learn why alcohol is fantastic because it sure does taste nasty to me.
Age 22ish - Still trying to figure out what's so great about alcohol. Still tastes nasty.
Age 23ish - One day I drank a Yuengling for the umpteenth time and something strange occurred. I genuinely enjoyed the taste of it.
Now - I still don't love alcohol as so many seem to do. But I do enjoy Yuengling beer.
The nearest place that sells Yuengling is Columbia, SC. about 120 miles away.
South Carolina is 1 of 4 early states whose presidential primaries carry extra weight because they are occurring before everyone else's.
So on a lighter note but still carrying a thread from the last post. I love Yuengling and I love Obama.
